ROMANIAN AGGRESSIVE POLICY AGAINST RUSSIA UNVEILED IN A BLACKSEANEWS AGENCY INTERVIEW

In an article printed by Blackseanews Agency ( the leading Black Sea News agency ) is unvelied the romanian agressive foreign policy towards Russia, because of the importance of the article we present this completly and we publicly thank to Blackseanews Agency for the agreement to public this article:

ROMANIAN AGGRESSIVE POLICY AGAINST RUSSIA

In the last months the use of Romanian foreign politics by Republicans in United States to hinder Barrack Obama policy , gets an unusual scrutiny as the Bucharest movements in the Black Sea region are reminding more and more of a Cold war time activity than a peaceful time diplomacy. The Bucharest support for Georgian army re-equipment and for Georgian government strong positions toward Russia or the support offered from Bucharest to the Moldavian anti-Russian and reformist government and finally the decision unilaterally announced by Romania to host the controversial antimissile shield left the region in limbo. But what is behind this biting the nose of Russia policy practice by Romania?

Tension at Black Sea.

From august 2008 when the Georgian – Russian war has broken out the peace at Black sea seemed long forgotten.   Almost on a monthly bases Tbilisi is trying, to put a brave face the latest part in this never ending saga: a broadcast in the night of 13 March at a Georgian television announcing that Russian troops have invaded Georgia and President Saackashvili, a staunch opponent to Russia was assassinated. This latest part in a show of tension between Georgia and Russia was destined to unify Georgian people against Russia and to boost the Georgian president authority. But this was just a media show; in January 2010 Tbilisi hosted an energy summit destined to promote an alternative energy route and source of supplies bypassing Russia. Only Romania was present at this show of force sending the Minister of Economy Adriean Videanu while the rest of the countries choose to ignore the invitation or to send no names to this anti-Russia show.

 

A Black Sea with NATO forces.

A new initiative from Romania is sending sock waives on Black Sea. A debate on Montreaux Convention (signed in 1936 and neutralizing the Dardanelle Straits and banning foreign military naval forces entering in the Black Sea) Now important voices are explaining that United States bases from Bulgaria and Romania could not be defended properly and neither the anti-missile shield could not operate at 100% capacity without a NATO permanent presence in the Black Sea. In NATO will established a stable naval based on the model of Mediterranean Sea the faith of Russian navy will be sealed and in 2018 when Sevastopol base will be evacuated practically the Black Sea will become a NATO lake and operation like 2008 war with  Georgia will be unthinkable .

Romania- Poland: a wall on the East.

In the next weeks the Romanian President is waited in Poland in a visit destined to forge a new Romania – Poland alliance. Nominally the alliance is directed towards nobody but as foreign commentator said is enough to look on the map to see where the alliance is directed. Also history is marking that in 1921 Poland and Romania also marked a partnership against Soviet Russia, a partnership that resisted until the broken of the Second World War in 1939. This successful partnership on controlling Eastern Europe is a memory that remained registered in the diplomatic memory of Bucharest and Warsaw.

Chisinau: a new line of confrontation.

A success of the last year of this powerful policy toward East headed by Bucharest was the orange revolution held in Chisinau that chased out of power the communist party and offered a slim majority to the pro-Europe opposition. This success was quickly fortified by Romania with economic help and with a strong advocacy voice in Europe pressing for a support to the young democracy flourishing in Moldova. But clouds are gathering quickly. The communist opposition is strong enough to block the elections of any pro-Europe candidate and this could lead to anticipate elections. In a climate of economic disorder and high inflation and with a monthly medium wage ranged around 40 USD a communist victory is almost inevitable. Bucharest is supporting a reform movement that is trying to modify the way that the President is elected giving a chance to avoid new elections. Russia is not regarding this Romanian involvement in what is consider here back door with positive eyes. Contrary Russia ,after here victory in Ukraine where a candidate of centrist parties Viktor Yanukovich, favorable to a friendship policy towards Moscow  has reported a resounding victory, is concentrating his efforts on new battle ground: Moldavia.

Romania and Ukraine: or how the love has faded away.

Five years ago when an orange revolution sweep to power in Bucharest President Traian Basescu and in Ukraine , President Victor Yushcenko a honeymoon was established between Romania and Ukraine . Both presidents initiated a reform movement in the Russia influence area, supported Georgia`s Mikhail Saakashvili independence politics and foster a plan for democracy building even in Russia. But this time quickly became history, now in Ukraine an independent personality, with a strong backing from Russian speaking eastern part of the country come to power. Usually the Romanian President was an all time presence in Kiev, this time he didn’t find time to participate in the inaugural ceremony of Viktor Yanukovich . Also recent declaration reminding that Romania is having issues with Ukraine regarding Romanian minority rights in Ukraine, a controversial channel build by Ukraine on Danube Delta and many other issues all are depicting a more tension image. If we put in the balance that Ukraine is having herself interests in Republic of Moldavia that are not exactly the same as Romania`s presidential vision  we could say that the honey moon is over.

 

The shield of our discontent.

Finally the already world known decision take but Romanian President to host the long debated anti-missile shield on Romanians soil. The decision taken without Parliament consent or political approval send Moscow in a rage speaking even by Cold War resurrection .The decision made tones of ink to be spread on newspapers and comments and will surely make many other tones in the next months . The most important is the United States attitude; already the Republican personalities announced that they will not forget the Romanian strong pro-US stance and promised a strong support if they will take the control of the Parliament in November elections. A long line of republicans key figure already find their way to Romania expressing their views that Bucharest will be even strongly backed in this baiting the nose of Russia policy if they will take the reins after Barrack Obama. In this Black Sea policy the next move will come in the next months from Russia. What this move will be?

US NEW POLICY TOWARDS EASTERN EUROPE

JOE BIDEN AND US NEW POLICY TOWARDS EASTERN EUROPE by Anton Caragea PhD, MA, FINS

 

On 17 of July at European Council on International Relations was published a letter signed by 22 former presidents, intellectual and policy makers from Central and Eastern Europe announcing their mistrust in the new rapprochement policy with Russia . Regarding the abandon of the missile shield in Poland and Czech Republic the letter pointed out: “Abandoning the program entirely or involving Russia too deeply in it without consulting Poland or the Czech Republic can undermine the credibility of the United States across the whole region”.  Now Joseph Biden has toured the region proclaiming the US new vision for Eastern Europe.

 

End of confrontational vision.

First announcement made in the visits in Ukraine and Georgia between 20 and 24 July was the end of the confrontational vision at Black Sea that G. Bush has supported. Even the visit in those two countries was left to Joe Biden, vice-president while Barack Obama has selected Moscow as the main step on his diplomatic journey. This was a gesture never made by previous administration which only visits Moscow after visiting Romania, Poland or Baltic states in order to send an unambiguous signal that relations with Russia are determined by Russia policy in Eastern Europe. No such signal come from Obama administration, sending the vice-president was itself a sign of downgrading relations with the region.  Joe Biden also announced the policymakers in Tbilisi and Kiev that now is the time to have better relations with Russia and pressured US allies like Georgia’s Saakashvili to open society and to embrace democracy reform, which was seen as a favorable moved toward pro-Russian opposition which is regularly   accusing President Saakashvili of dictatorial ambition. Also in Kiev Biden didn’t missed the opportunity to meet Victor Janucovici the Kremlin backed main contender for president Victor Yushcenko for presidential bid in 2010 Ukrainian elections. A striking difference form previously US unwavering support to orange revolution leaders in Ukraine and Georgia.

Yushcenko a leader of orange revolution now abandoned ?

End of the missile shield.

Now between 20 and 23 of October vice-president Biden was in a new diplomatic journey to Eastern Europe visiting Poland, Romania and Czech Republic in order to officially announce the US redraw from the Missile Shield Plan. Announced in 2007 by Bush administration, the Missile shield was seen by many as a continuation of Reagan Star Wars, that help bring down Soviet Union economy and communism system. This time the shield, publicly oriented against Iran, was universally regarded as a pressure against Putin`s Russia. All the leaders of the region have seen this sign of US commitment to the Eastern Europe in the face of a new assertive Russian power. The Obama administration decision to build a small shield, really dedicated counter Iran ballistic system, on Black Sea in Turkey and Israel and maybe Azerbaijan, was looked as a further signed of US disengagement in the region. Joe Biden visit was projected with the purpose of calming eastern European fears and to build a new relation between US and Eastern Europe.

A new U.S. strategic vision.

Joe Biden explained in Warsaw, Bucharest and Prague  that: US is not seeing Russia as an enemy and the Cold War perception  of Moscow as a foe that must be isolated under an Iron Curtain is over . The result of this assertion was that US will not tolerate and support rebellious actions as Georgian-Russian war in summer of 2008 or Ukraine pressure on Russian navy or Romanian plans to counter Russian influence at Black sea and Polish pressure in Belarus. All this actions of harassment backed by previous US administration must end.        

Also US is ready to sponsor a detente in the Eastern Europe- Russia relations based on economic and cultural relations and on a new vision of a common economic space between Russia and Europe. This vision of peaceful cooperation is not shared in the region , the 22 former leaders wanted a tougher stance on Kremlin: “When it comes to Russia, our experience has been that a more determined and principled policy toward Moscow will not only strengthen the West’s security but will ultimately lead Moscow to follow a more cooperative policy as well”. The US response is a startling: No! to this vision.

Saakashvili sacrified on the altar of a new US-Russia relationship ?

A space of economic cooperation.     

Instead of political confrontation from Baltic to Black Sea Joe Biden is wanting to see economic cooperation and more precisely: energy cooperation. In Poland he was spoken about energy routes in the Baltic linking Russia and Europe closer, in Romania was speaking about Trieste- Constanta gas pipeline and a liquid gas terminal at Constanta, based on Qatari gas transported to Romania and from here to Western Europe.  Also Biden expressed support not for EU backed Nabucco pipeline, destined to override Russia as a gas supplier to Europe but to South Line, a Russian sponsored gas pipeline.  To measure what a disappointment this speech  will be for Eastern Europe leaders I quote one more time from there letter: „Central and Eastern European countries should lobby harder … for diversification of the energy mix, suppliers, and transit routes, as well as for tough legal scrutiny of Russia’s abuse of its monopoly and cartel-like power inside the EU. But American political support on this will play a crucial role. Similarly, the United States can play an important role in solidifying further its support for the Nabucco pipeline”.

Finaly Joe Biden signaled in all the capitals his wish for a new generation of leaders in Eastern Europe capable to understand the necessity of a new policy towards Russia, in Bucharest, he was paying a lot of attention to opposition leaders in order to signal the US disinterest in the fate of Romanian president Traian Basescu, a former darling of Bush administration, and the play was repeated over and over in Warsaw and Prague.

Lessons of Joe Biden visits.

First it is interest to point out that Biden avoid going to Baltic States , shattered by economic crisis , isolated in EU and pressured by Russia, a sign that Baltic States must first  end there anti-Russian stance and normalize relations with Kremlin.  Also Biden didn’t visit Bulgaria that already switch to a more conciliatory stance with Russia accepting Russian pipelines on his territory, supporting Russia in Kosovo, Serbia and Balkans relation and opened for strategic business partnership with Russia. Also Hungary that signed 10 billion agreement on gas, energy and oil with Russia accepting to become Russia`s main energy partner in the region was avoided. For Bulgaria and Hungary the new Washington vision was already in place; make business not war was the tune form White House. This was a visit to last remaining pro-Bush strongholds: Poland, Romania and Czech Republic destined to signal that US is redrawing support for confrontational vision. Cohabitation with Russia is a must for the new leaders of the region.    

Professor Anton Caragea PhD ,MA, FINS