Tag Archives: Georgian – Russian war

ROMANIAN AGGRESSIVE POLICY AGAINST RUSSIA UNVEILED IN A BLACKSEANEWS AGENCY INTERVIEW

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In an article printed by Blackseanews Agency ( the leading Black Sea News agency ) is unvelied the romanian agressive foreign policy towards Russia, because of the importance of the article we present this completly and we publicly thank to Blackseanews Agency for the agreement to public this article:

ROMANIAN AGGRESSIVE POLICY AGAINST RUSSIA

In the last months the use of Romanian foreign politics by Republicans in United States to hinder Barrack Obama policy , gets an unusual scrutiny as the Bucharest movements in the Black Sea region are reminding more and more of a Cold war time activity than a peaceful time diplomacy. The Bucharest support for Georgian army re-equipment and for Georgian government strong positions toward Russia or the support offered from Bucharest to the Moldavian anti-Russian and reformist government and finally the decision unilaterally announced by Romania to host the controversial antimissile shield left the region in limbo. But what is behind this biting the nose of Russia policy practice by Romania?

Tension at Black Sea.

From august 2008 when the Georgian – Russian war has broken out the peace at Black sea seemed long forgotten.   Almost on a monthly bases Tbilisi is trying, to put a brave face the latest part in this never ending saga: a broadcast in the night of 13 March at a Georgian television announcing that Russian troops have invaded Georgia and President Saackashvili, a staunch opponent to Russia was assassinated. This latest part in a show of tension between Georgia and Russia was destined to unify Georgian people against Russia and to boost the Georgian president authority. But this was just a media show; in January 2010 Tbilisi hosted an energy summit destined to promote an alternative energy route and source of supplies bypassing Russia. Only Romania was present at this show of force sending the Minister of Economy Adriean Videanu while the rest of the countries choose to ignore the invitation or to send no names to this anti-Russia show.

 

A Black Sea with NATO forces.

A new initiative from Romania is sending sock waives on Black Sea. A debate on Montreaux Convention (signed in 1936 and neutralizing the Dardanelle Straits and banning foreign military naval forces entering in the Black Sea) Now important voices are explaining that United States bases from Bulgaria and Romania could not be defended properly and neither the anti-missile shield could not operate at 100% capacity without a NATO permanent presence in the Black Sea. In NATO will established a stable naval based on the model of Mediterranean Sea the faith of Russian navy will be sealed and in 2018 when Sevastopol base will be evacuated practically the Black Sea will become a NATO lake and operation like 2008 war with  Georgia will be unthinkable .

Romania- Poland: a wall on the East.

In the next weeks the Romanian President is waited in Poland in a visit destined to forge a new Romania – Poland alliance. Nominally the alliance is directed towards nobody but as foreign commentator said is enough to look on the map to see where the alliance is directed. Also history is marking that in 1921 Poland and Romania also marked a partnership against Soviet Russia, a partnership that resisted until the broken of the Second World War in 1939. This successful partnership on controlling Eastern Europe is a memory that remained registered in the diplomatic memory of Bucharest and Warsaw.

Chisinau: a new line of confrontation.

A success of the last year of this powerful policy toward East headed by Bucharest was the orange revolution held in Chisinau that chased out of power the communist party and offered a slim majority to the pro-Europe opposition. This success was quickly fortified by Romania with economic help and with a strong advocacy voice in Europe pressing for a support to the young democracy flourishing in Moldova. But clouds are gathering quickly. The communist opposition is strong enough to block the elections of any pro-Europe candidate and this could lead to anticipate elections. In a climate of economic disorder and high inflation and with a monthly medium wage ranged around 40 USD a communist victory is almost inevitable. Bucharest is supporting a reform movement that is trying to modify the way that the President is elected giving a chance to avoid new elections. Russia is not regarding this Romanian involvement in what is consider here back door with positive eyes. Contrary Russia ,after here victory in Ukraine where a candidate of centrist parties Viktor Yanukovich, favorable to a friendship policy towards Moscow  has reported a resounding victory, is concentrating his efforts on new battle ground: Moldavia.

Romania and Ukraine: or how the love has faded away.

Five years ago when an orange revolution sweep to power in Bucharest President Traian Basescu and in Ukraine , President Victor Yushcenko a honeymoon was established between Romania and Ukraine . Both presidents initiated a reform movement in the Russia influence area, supported Georgia`s Mikhail Saakashvili independence politics and foster a plan for democracy building even in Russia. But this time quickly became history, now in Ukraine an independent personality, with a strong backing from Russian speaking eastern part of the country come to power. Usually the Romanian President was an all time presence in Kiev, this time he didn’t find time to participate in the inaugural ceremony of Viktor Yanukovich . Also recent declaration reminding that Romania is having issues with Ukraine regarding Romanian minority rights in Ukraine, a controversial channel build by Ukraine on Danube Delta and many other issues all are depicting a more tension image. If we put in the balance that Ukraine is having herself interests in Republic of Moldavia that are not exactly the same as Romania`s presidential vision  we could say that the honey moon is over.

 

The shield of our discontent.

Finally the already world known decision take but Romanian President to host the long debated anti-missile shield on Romanians soil. The decision taken without Parliament consent or political approval send Moscow in a rage speaking even by Cold War resurrection .The decision made tones of ink to be spread on newspapers and comments and will surely make many other tones in the next months . The most important is the United States attitude; already the Republican personalities announced that they will not forget the Romanian strong pro-US stance and promised a strong support if they will take the control of the Parliament in November elections. A long line of republicans key figure already find their way to Romania expressing their views that Bucharest will be even strongly backed in this baiting the nose of Russia policy if they will take the reins after Barrack Obama. In this Black Sea policy the next move will come in the next months from Russia. What this move will be?

CAUCASUS THE POWDER BARELL OF EUROPE?

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CAUCASUS THE POWDER BARELL OF EUROPE?

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Caucasus: the place for the next war ?

 

In the XIX century it was usual to say about the Balkan Peninsula that here is the powder barrel of Europe where all the wars are starting. In XX century the Russian and German ambitions where making the Eastern Europe the powder barrel of Europe. The XXI century seems to have (besides Middle East) his own soft spot: the Caucasus region. Here an explosive mixture of dictatorship, military ambitions, Islamic fundamentalism and rich natural resources is threatening the Europe stability.

Georgia`s open wounds.

Off course the first thing that is crossing our minds in relation with Caucasus region is the Russian-Georgian war of 2008. The war left the region in tatters : Georgia has seen disappearing all his chances to join NATO or European Union in the forcible future, the Georgian army was crushed by a rudimentary Russian forced proving that Georgia is far from a position of strength in the region. Not at least Georgia has seen amputation of his territory by the independence proclamation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Both newly appeared countries are supported militarily and economically by Russia which is making any transgression against these two countries a casus belli. If Georgia does not relinquish his claims to this two regions will never be accepted to NATO and European Union, both organization requiring a prior settlement of frontiers as a part of any pre-joining negotiation. Now an isolated Georgia, a war ravage country confronted with street demonstration and an unpopular president with authoritarian tendencies is ready to embark at least in a war of words with Russia. In august 2009 a war of tension brooked out one more time between Russia and Georgia both trying to win a PR confrontation this time, war is a continuation of politics by other means used to say Clausewitz and Russian and Georgia are ready to continue their confrontation.

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 Frozen conflicts.

The Georgian-Russian war is not the only conflict that is casting a shadow over the region prospects on a normal development.   The north of Caucasus seemed to be one more time engulf in the flames of radical Islam. In 1999 then Prime-Minister Putin has build his career on crushing the Chechen rebellion. Now ten year after the story is again on the front page of newspapers; Chechnya is burning.  In Ingushetia, a neighboring republic of Chechnya has seen in the last months his president badly wounded and two ministers assassinated and a radical increase in terrorist activity. In the old wound of Chechnya the Kremlin prodigy Ramzan Kadyrov is confronted with an Islamic revival, a chain of assassination and attacks plague the country and make even the Prime minister reloaded Vladimir Putin visiting the region in a desperate effort to prevent a new war in Chechnya that could be fatal to his political stature. Let`s not forget that Chechnya war has destroyed Boris Eltin popularity and toppled two Russians prime ministers.

The conflict has spelt into Dagestan and North Ossetia menacing the pro-Russian leaders and the stability of a difficult region. A new war in Caucasus in a crumbling economy with a Russian unreformed army could spell disaster for Russian renewed imperial ambitious.

Azerbaijan on the frontline.

Azerbaijan is not enjoying a comfortable position on power struggle on Caucasus. With a large part of the population of Shia confession (the same as Iran) the Azerbaijan is observing with increasing worry the rise in isolation of Iran. If a war is to broke up in the region Azerbaijan is crucial: first his air space must be used for aerial attacks on targets on Iran, the country radar system must be used to control Iran air space and any missile interception system to prevent attacks on Europe and Israel must be position here. Already the Israel president Shimon Peres made a landmark visit to Azerbaijan (June 2009), described by Israel Minister of Foreign Affairs as:  „to reaffirms the strategic relationship between the two countries”.

Azerbaijan is sharing a long border with Iran, an important Shia population and a common history and is having important internal issues that make the country fragile, economic crisis seriously crippled the economy; corruption is endemic and democracy inexistent. In this difficult portrait the Iran threat made public by Iranian Chief of Staff , Hasan Firudabadi, that said that is regarding Azerbaijan movement as inimical and the Iran ambassador in Baku was recalled for consultation .An attack on Iran could be fatal for Azerbaijan in the present diplomatically  and economical construction.

Caucasus: oil and gas battle.

As if the geopolitical confrontation in the region is not enough the resources battle is at an age here. The oil and gas resources of Caspic Sea are poring from this region either to Russia, or to Europe, also the reach wealth of Iran in gas and oil could be exported to Europe only by this region. Russia is trying to secure his control on energy route on Caucasus by building South Stream pipeline, by dismantling independent pipeline and exploit the military victory over Georgia as an incentive to control the region resources. European Union is trying to find alternative routes and reserves of gases, independent of Russian influence by building Nabucco bypassing Russia as main supplier. But the Nabucco pipeline must go by Caucasus region and the gas and oil reserves  are also in the region so economic date are making the future of the region even more cloudy then it seems.

Caucasus is looking like a fragile region, with authoritarian regimes, economic corruption and under an ongoing battle for influence and power between Russia, United States, European Union, Israel and Iran. Will be Caucasus the new powder barrel of Europe?    

Professor Anton Caragea PhD, MA, FINS